By Tayo Mabeweje
In the annals of Nigeria’s political history, few have endured the storm and emerged stronger like President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The 2023 general elections were not just a contest — they were a crucible. He faced resistance from within his party, betrayal by longtime allies, and a coordinated economic squeeze through fuel scarcity and a controversial Naira redesign. Yet, against all odds, Tinubu triumphed. Now as Commander-in-Chief, some underestimate him again. But history has shown: Bola Tinubu is not easily dethroned — he is a master of turning adversity into advantage.
The 2023 elections presented Tinubu with one of the most formidable political battlegrounds Nigeria has ever seen. He wasn’t just contesting against opposition candidates. He faced a sitting Vice President within his party, a sitting Senate President, a serving Governor from a powerful region, a sitting Central Bank Governor who oversaw a divisive monetary policy, the very chairman of his own political party, and elements within the Presidency working against his emergence. On top of that, his campaign had to survive fuel scarcity at its height and a deliberately engineered Naira redesign that disrupted the economy. It was, by all accounts, an orchestrated effort to break his momentum.
Despite this, he stayed in the race, unshaken. Every weapon was used to break his will — but none succeeded. When others would have retreated, Tinubu pressed forward. His message to the nation remained consistent: “Emi lokan” — it is my turn. And against the tide, Nigerians listened.
What made Tinubu’s victory even more remarkable was the betrayal he faced from trusted political allies. Over 50% of those he had helped rise through the ranks turned their backs on him. Prominent among them was Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, one of his former proteges. Others, who had benefited from Tinubu’s political machine in the past, were either silent or subtly working to sabotage his candidacy. But instead of retaliating or responding in bitterness, Tinubu chose silence, resilience, and long-term strategy. He understood that politics is about patience and positioning, not emotional reactions.
It is important to understand that Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not just stumble into victory. Those who know him closely describe him as a political chess master. He thinks in moves and countermoves. He builds alliances, recalibrates when needed, and never shows his hand too early. His victory in 2023 was not based on luck; it was the result of strategic grassroots mobilization, long-term political investments, and an uncanny ability to read the national mood. For over two decades, Tinubu cultivated a national network, investing in the political careers of others across geopolitical zones, and building bridges that many of his opponents failed to notice — until it was too late.
He knew where to campaign, when to step back, and how to let his opponents self-destruct. He did not need to be loud to be effective. He allowed noise to distract others while he focused on results.
Fast forward to today: the same man many plotted against is now Nigeria’s number one citizen — the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Holding the Grand Commander of the Federal Republic (GCFR) title, he is now in control of the very system that once tried to stop him. Yet, some politicians — many of whom can’t deliver their own wards during elections — now believe they can unseat him in 2027. It’s a political miscalculation.
They forget that the game has changed. The man they tried to destroy now sits atop the structure they once manipulated. Tinubu not only understands government; he now controls the levers of power. He is no longer the underdog seeking support — he is the leader setting the tone. The policies, the appointments, the structure — they now flow from his table.
Beyond politics, Tinubu is also reshaping governance. His economic reforms — though painful — are grounded in long-term sustainability. He is pushing for renewed fiscal discipline, diversification, and reduction of over-dependence on oil revenues. These are not populist moves; they are the tough but necessary decisions of a man focused on legacy and impact.
If Tinubu could win in 2023 — against the establishment, economic sabotage, and political betrayal — how much more now, when he has the instruments of power, the experience of incumbency, and the advantage of having seen every angle of attack? Barring any extraordinary shift, 2027 may prove to be a much smoother ride for Tinubu. His base remains loyal. His enemies remain disorganized. And above all, his experience remains unmatched.
And let it be said: political strategy isn’t about shouting the loudest or trending on social media. It’s about understanding timing, power dynamics, and people. Tinubu does not need to engage in unnecessary battles. He watches. He calculates. And when he moves, it is always deliberate — and often decisive.
You don’t defeat a man like Bola Ahmed Tinubu with noise or wishful thinking. You don’t dethrone a strategist by underestimating his game. He has been tested and proven. If 2023 taught us anything, it’s this: Tinubu is not easily shaken. He may bend — but he never breaks.
The question is no longer whether he can survive politically. The real question is: who among those eyeing 2027 truly understands the game they are about to play? Because as the noise grows louder, the master is watching, calculating, and waiting — and when he moves, the game will never be the same.