by Palladium
There is little any one can do to expunge former vice president Atiku Abubakar and former Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai from the front pages of newspapers or deny them prime mention on social media platforms. As the opening stages of the next election cycle get heated, they will say or do things that will get them good coverage, even if that coverage ends up undermining their political goals. While the former vice president has found it difficult to cobble together the coalition of his dream, Mallam el-Rufai has blissfully rolled out verbal incendiaries guaranteed to get him good mention in the dailies. And while both politicians now try to anchor their hopes on the underperforming Social Democratic Party (SDP), they have had little success in reining in the wild broncos of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). So far, few notable politicians have openly associated with them, preferring to be tentative about the idea of a coalition, and averse to the brinkmanship that typifies Alhaji Atiku’s and Mallam el-Rufai’s unappeasable, self-centred politics.
Meanwhile, the former Kaduna governor has developed a unique kind of politics, one that sees him oscillating between fawning and self-abnegation on the one hand and displaying meanness and dispensing vitriol on the other hand. He does not have many political leaders to fawn over at the moment, particularly in the opposition, except perhaps Alhaji Atiku; but there are dozens of hard and soft targets in the Bola Tinubu presidency, particularly the president, at whom to take potshots. And he will shoot without scruples, for he is a wounded lion. In the past few weeks, he has ladled out vitriol, copiously and remorselessly. Backed by the famous abjurer, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who was until recently a special adviser to the president, Mallam el-Rufai is a keen verbal marksman. Unprincipled like Alhaji Atiku, but more profligate with words, it matters little to him what side of the divide he is at any time: he will defend or excoriate either side with equal venom and plausibility, unconcerned with how his constant groveling or contradistinctive iconoclasm is interpreted.
But Mallam el-Rufai has his head in the clouds. Speaking in Kano days ago, he referenced his consultations with SDP leaders amidst efforts to build a party that would not be owned or dominated by one man, such as the All Progressives Congress (APC) has done, or the PDP that had, in his words, become a spent force. Ignoring his own atrocious record in Kaduna State, where he denounced, alienated and oppressed dissenters, he spoke glibly about ensuring internal democracy in the SDP and eliminating ‘godfatherism’, his bogeyman. Alluding to the Delta State defections which have riled many politicians like him, he averred that sitting governors have one vote and can lose elections, citing his own example in the last presidential election when as APC governor he lost Kaduna to the PDP. He also cited the example of the president who lost Lagos, partly because, as he put it, ‘Lagosians don’t vote.’ Full of theory, disconnected from reality, including his own mordant reality, the domineering and meddlesome Mallam el-Rufai spoke of the SDP appeal as a party that geared towards resisting domination from anyone. He is of course untruthful.
Fortunately for the country, the newsmen who interviewed him in Kano also asked him what kind of zoning arrangement the SDP would adopt in view of the present political realities of Nigeria. The party had not reached that bridge yet, let alone crossed it, he said. When they get to that point, the party would take a decision, insisting that they were looking for members at this point, people with which they could build the party, not ambitious politicians. Seriously? From Mallam el-Rufai, his imperial majesty and ambitious and grandiloquent politician? But he could never restrain himself for long; that is why he is a reporter’s delight. Sooner or later, regardless of his irreverence, he revealed where he stood. He is often too frank to dissemble. He, therefore, expatiated on the zoning thing; and here is what he said: “This country is facing an existential crisis. We may not have a country for you to contest for president if we continue the way we are going or if things get worse. So for me, I don’t care where the person comes from. But I want a candidate and a ticket that will do two things: that will offer solutions to Nigeria’s problems. Number two, who will excite Nigerians enough to come out and vote and defeat the APC government that is taking Nigeria backwards. So I don’t care if that person is you or anyone, I will support it. I don’t care. I can say it because we championed power shift. But where did the power shift take us? Should we stick to that even though the whole country is falling apart and things are not going well and the people in government are not listening and everyone is struggling other than those in government? I will no longer stand for the ‘president-must-come-from-here’ syndrome.”
Put simply, Mallam el-Rufai, the closet Fulani exceptionalist, has no patience with propping up a southern candidate. This time, he wants a northern candidate, obviously because he anticipates that the SDP would mostly likely appeal to northern politicians and members at this point. Yes, they will do their best to expand both the base and reach of the party, but given the mood of the country and the suspicions convulsing the body politic, not many southerners of influence would stake their future on the SDP or Mallam el-Rufai’s theories, especially not after former Delta State governor Ifeanyi Okowa spoke ruefully about zoning and the mistakes that undid the PDP. Whether Mallam el-Rufai likes it or not, even if they manage to build the SDP to a fairly noticeable height, the party will come to grief on the Golgotha of presidential ambitions and zoning. Established parties had found it difficult to transcend the zoning crisis, and the APC barely managed to overcome it in 2023, while the PDP came unstuck. Even if they find the money, the SDP is unlikely to find the magic wand to placate its members when the ambitions of their leaders confront them.
It is inescapable that campaign 2027 will be downright nasty. It will be brutal, tangled, ethnic, and bigoted. While the SDP will struggle to reach the critical mass its leaders intend for it, the party will not lack waspish defenders unafraid to plumb the depths of bitter and corrosive abuse to incite, inflame, and provoke conflagrations. Alhaji Atiku is implacable; he will do his damndest to portray his opponents in putrid light, but his efforts will probably be smothered by his unfulfilled desire to get a platform on which to run. Neither the PDP nor the SDP would avail him half the chance. But the wily, pretentious and equally ambitious Mallam el-Rufai will at the right time demonstrate that the former vice president is dispensable. He will go into alliances within the party and instigate revolts, if necessary, to position himself for rich pickings. He does not possess half as much altruism as he ascribes to himself and his politics. But if the defections the former Kaduna governor scorns continue to advantage the APC, Mallam el-Rufai will be left with the grim and daunting exercise of testing his theory about how many votes a governor can really command. However, in 2027, the governors’ influence will be consequential to the outcomes of the polls, regardless of how bitter and regional the campaigns turn out to be.