By Tayo Mabeweje
Politics is not boxing, where courage alone can earn applause. It is chess, where every move must be calculated, every alliance nurtured, and every ambition subjected to the test of timing.
One truth has remained constant in South-West politics for over two decades: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the political epicentre of the region. Governments have changed, parties have merged, alliances have shifted, but the gravitational pull of his political structure has remained remarkably resilient.
This is the reality Governor Seyi Makinde appears to have underestimated.
There is an old lesson in nature: when an ant raises its voice against an elephant, the forest does not expect the elephant to respond. The sheer weight of the elephant’s presence settles the argument long before words ever could.
Today, that elephant is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Governor Seyi Makinde, in my view, has chosen to confront a political institution whose roots run too deep to be shaken by defiance alone. The louder the confrontation becomes, the more it risks highlighting not the weakness of the elephant, but the vulnerability of the ant.
Politics is governed by an unwritten law: never mistake temporary popularity for enduring political supremacy. Elections may produce governors, but history produces political leaders whose influence transcends electoral cycles.
Tinubu belongs to that latter category.
His dominance in the South-West was not inherited. It was painstakingly built through decades of political organisation, strategic partnerships, calculated sacrifices, and an unmatched ability to identify, mentor and sustain political talent across the region. That network cannot be wished away, nor can it be dismantled by rhetoric.
Governor Makinde’s apparent determination to chart a different political course may appeal to some admirers, but it also raises a fundamental question: to what end?
Every successful politician knows that ambition must be anchored in political arithmetic. When the numbers are not in your favour, wisdom recommends recalibration rather than confrontation.
This is where I believe Governor Makinde has faltered.
Rather than consolidating his standing within the broader South-West political family, he appears to be testing the strength of a structure that has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience. Such a contest is unlikely to weaken the structure; it may instead weaken the challenger.
Political history is unforgiving to those who misread the mood of their environment. Leaders who confuse personal conviction with regional consensus often discover that the electorate has already moved in another direction.
The South-West has always rewarded strategic thinkers. It respects courage, but it rewards calculation. It admires ambition, but it honours patience.
President Tinubu understood this long before he occupied Aso Rock. He waited, he negotiated, he consolidated, and when his moment arrived, he stepped forward with a political coalition that had already accepted his leadership.
That is the difference between building a wave and standing against one.
In my assessment, Governor Seyi Makinde is engaged in a political contest whose terrain overwhelmingly favours President Tinubu. Unless there is a dramatic shift in regional dynamics, the imbalance of influence is likely to remain significant.
The moral is simple.
When an ant spends its strength provoking an elephant, it does not change the direction of the elephant’s journey. It merely exhausts itself while the elephant continues to shape the path through the forest.
In politics, as in nature, stature matters. Structures matter. Timing matters.
Above all, those who ignore the weight of history often become its next lesson.
Tayo Mabeweje is a Public Affairs Analyst, Media and Strategic Communications Consultant, Public Relations Practitioner and Development Communication Specialist. He writes extensively on governance, politics, leadership, public policy and strategic communications.